Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
